China’s Investments in Afghanistan and Their Impact on Its Engagement with Other Major Powers

Abstract

With the expansion of China’s investments in Afghanistan—particularly in the sectors of mining, infrastructure, and projects related to the Belt and Road Initiative—a new transformation has emerged in the geopolitics of Central and South Asia. These developments have triggered serious concerns among major regional and global powers, including the United States, the Russian Federation, and the Republic of India. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the dimensions and sources of these countries’ concerns regarding China’s increasing presence in Afghanistan and to assess its implications for the regional balance of power and China’s interactions with other major powers. This research employs a descriptive–analytical method and uses data collected through specialized questionnaires distributed among political analysts and international relations experts. The findings reveal that India perceives China’s investments as a threat to its economic interests, geopolitical influence, and national security—particularly in relation to competition over natural resources and the diminishing of New Delhi’s traditional influence in Afghanistan. The United States, on the other hand, is concerned about the weakening of Western influence and the emergence of an Asia-centric order led by China, which could challenge Washington’s strategic and economic interests. Russia, while benefiting from the decline of Western presence in Afghanistan, nevertheless views China’s expanding role in its traditional sphere of influence (Central Asia) with caution and uncertainty. Overall, the study shows that China’s economic presence in Afghanistan not only intensifies regional competition with India but also becomes a new source of divergence among major powers. It is therefore anticipated that Afghanistan will become a significant arena in the future geopolitical competition among China, the United States, Russia, and India.